[Platinum Insights] (2.23.23) Important numbers to keep an eye on

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note, seen as a proxy for global borrowing costs, rose past the 3.95% mark on Thursday to reach its highest in over three months amid further expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise its funds rate to a higher level for a longer period of time. 

The core PCE price index was revised to show a softer slowdown than previously anticipated in the fourth quarter, while initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell and furthered evidence of a tight labor market. 

Still, downward revisions to the US GDP limited the rally for bond yields. The data comes shortly after the release of minutes from the FOMC’s latest meeting, which showed that policymakers underscored upside risks to the inflation outlook and that interest rates would need to remain at a restrictive level until inflation is clearly on a path to 2%.

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell by 3,000 to 192,000 in the week ending February 18th, below market expectations of 200,000. The latest value remained close to the nine-month low of 183,000 hit at the end of January, giving further evidence that the US labor market remains tight in part to reduced labor force participation. This could force employers to raise wages to attract and keep staff, adding to further inflationary pressure in the world’s largest economy. 

The four-week moving average, which removes week-to-week volatility, rose by 1,500 to 191,250. On a non-seasonally adjusted monthly basis, claims fell by 14,465 to 210,867, with significant declines in California (-4,276) and New York (-1,938).