[Platinum Insights] (3.2.23) Major Numbers you MUST See.

#1. 

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell by 2,000 from the previous week to 190,000 on the week ending February 25th, below market expectations of 195,000. The latest value remained close to the nine-month low of 183,000 hit at the end of January, giving further evidence that the US labor market remains tight in part to reduced labor force participation. This could force employers to raise wages to attract and keep staff, adding to further inflationary pressure in the world’s largest economy. The four-week moving average, which removes week-to-week volatility, rose by 1,750 to 193,000. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, claims fell by 9,297 to 201,710, with significant declines in Kentucky (-6,156) and California (-2,353). source: U.S. Department of Labor

#2.

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity growth in the United States was revised lower to 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022, down from a preliminary estimate of 3.0 percent and compared with the previous period’s 1.2 percent increase. Output grew 3.1 percent (vs a preliminary 3.5 percent) and hours worked were up 1.4 percent (vs a preliminary 0.5 percent). On a yearly basis, productivity decreased 1.8 percent in the final three months of 2022, reflecting a 0.7 percent expansion in output and a 2.6 percent advance in hours worked. 

Considering 2022 full year, annual average productivity decreased 1.7 percent, the largest decline since 1974, when productivity also decreased 1.7 percent.  Unit labor costs in the US nonfarm business sector increased an annualized 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022, faster than initial estimates of a 1 percent gain but slowing from an upwardly revised 6.9 percent rise in the previous period. It compared with market forecasts of a 1.6 percent rise. 

It is the smallest increase in labor costs since the first quarter of 2021, reflecting a 4.9 percent increase in hourly compensation and a 1.7 percent increase in productivity. Year-on-year, labor costs were up 6.3 percent, following a 6.4 percent rise. In 2022, unit labor costs advanced by 6.5 percent, after a 2.4 percent increase in 2021.

#3.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note, seen as a proxy for global borrowing costs, topped 4%, approaching an over 14-year high of 4.3% reached in October, as a batch of hot economic data strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to a higher level and keep them restrictive for longer. Data from the US Department of Labor showed that the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, pointing to a still-tight labor market and opening the door for further interest rate increases. A robust labor market and signs of persistent inflation forced investors to reverse their views on the likely future path of interest rate rises, now pricing at least three more 25 basis point rate hikes this year and betting that interest rates will peak around 5.5% by June.

#4.

unemployment benefits fell by 2,000 from the previous week to 190,000 on the week ending February 25th, below market expectations of 195,000. The latest value remained close to the nine-month low of 183,000 hit at the end of January, giving further evidence that the US labor market remains tight in part to reduced labor force participation. This could force employers to raise wages to attract and keep staff, adding to further inflationary pressure in the world’s largest economy. The four-week moving average, which removes week-to-week volatility, rose by 1,750 to 193,000. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, claims fell by 9,297 to 201,710, with significant declines in Kentucky (-6,156) and California (-2,353). source: U.S. Department of Labor

#5.
Nonfarm business sector labor productivity growth in the United States was revised lower to 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022, down from a preliminary estimate of 3.0 percent and compared with the previous period’s 1.2 percent increase. Output grew 3.1 percent (vs a preliminary 3.5 percent) and hours worked were up 1.4 percent (vs a preliminary 0.5 percent). On a yearly basis, productivity decreased 1.8 percent in the final three months of 2022, reflecting a 0.7 percent expansion in output and a 2.6 percent advance in hours worked. Considering 2022 full year, annual average productivity decreased 1.7 percent, the largest decline since 1974, when productivity also decreased 1.7 percent.  Unit labor costs in the US nonfarm business sector increased an annualized 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022, faster than initial estimates of a 1 percent gain but slowing from an upwardly revised 6.9 percent rise in the previous period. It compared with market forecasts of a 1.6 percent rise. It is the smallest increase in labor costs since the first quarter of 2021, reflecting a 4.9 percent increase in hourly compensation and a 1.7 percent increase in productivity. Year-on-year, labor costs were up 6.3 percent, following a 6.4 percent rise. In 2022, unit labor costs advanced by 6.5 percent, after a 2.4 percent increase in 2021.